The Power of EstiBot
On this page I report the comparisons of EstiBot valuations to known sale prices.Here are appraisals from the Fast Bulk Tool compared to previous known sale prices as reported in the presentation of the Domain Distribution Network by Dark Blue Sea. I don't know if these sales were actually made within the network or somewhere else. I've removed the "zero" appraisals, because with the Fast Bulk Tool, a "zero" only means that the fast tool cannot valuate the keywords - not that it is worth zero dollars.
Note that for this run I disabled the ability of Estibot to look for the latest known sale price of the domain, meaning that these appraisals are purely based on keyword strength, without any knowledge of the actual sale price.
On the left is the reported sale price, and on the right is the Estibot Fast Bulk Tool appraisal.
| AdNetworks.com | $3,000 | $5,600 |
| AntiqueDesks.com | $2,107 | $9,300 |
| Aromatherapists.com | $2,000 | $3,700 |
| ArtCentre.com | $2,200 | $6,200 |
| ArticleArchive.com | $2,016 | $110,000 |
| AutoDetailers.com | $2,285 | $2,400 |
| BackgroundReports.com | $2,300 | $4,300 |
| BoardMeetings.com | $2,300 | $14,000 |
| BritishFashion.com | $2,888 | $4,600 |
| CarAndTruckParts.com | $2,200 | $2,400 |
| CaribbeanBeach.com | $2,450 | $11,000 |
| ChineseHealing.com | $2,000 | $3,800 |
| CompensationManagement.com | $2,688 | $4,700 |
| CookingSupplies.com | $2,500 | $11,000 |
| CoolingSystem.com | $3,000 | $10,000 |
| CopyrightAttorney.com | $2,125 | $5,000 |
| DcDining.com | $2,000 | $4,900 |
| DietaryFiber.com | $2,488 | $17,000 |
| DrumTracks.com | $2,500 | $4,100 |
| EcommerceConsulting.com | $3,488 | $6,200 |
| EmergencyNotification.com | $3,000 | $3,800 |
| EnergyProcurement.com | $2,288 | $2,300 |
| ExerciseBicycles.com | $2,100 | $12,000 |
| EyeCareCenters.com | $3,000 | $1,100 |
| FashionShopping.com | $2,688 | $16,000 |
| FlightLog.com | $3,000 | $2,600 |
| GameStudios.com | $2,088 | $7,000 |
| GovernmentPrinting.com | $2,188 | $3,300 |
| GreatStocks.com | $2,000 | $2,600 |
| GreatWork.com | $3,000 | $2,600 |
| GreenTurf.com | $3,049 | $2,500 |
| GutterProtection.com | $2,488 | $6,900 |
| HandmadeCarpets.com | $2,500 | $2,400 |
| HomeTheatreSystem.com | $2,100 | $3,200 |
| HouseholdAppliances.com | $2,600 | $21,000 |
| InformationSharing.com | $3,200 | $7,600 |
| InsuranceAuctions.com | $2,200 | $8,100 |
| InternationalInternships.com | $2,000 | $4,200 |
| LawDigest.com | $2,000 | $3,500 |
| LicensedProfessional.com | $2,300 | $4,400 |
| LightRecipes.com | $2,500 | $3,200 |
| LightShop.com | $2,500 | $8,200 |
| LocksmithServices.com | $2,100 | $2,500 |
| LuxuryAccommodations.com | $2,888 | $3,700 |
| LuxuryLiner.com | $2,500 | $2,500 |
| MarketDemand.com | $2,000 | $3,500 |
| MovieRoles.com | $2,688 | $2,300 |
| MultimediaComputers.com | $2,500 | $14,000 |
| NicheProducts.com | $2,000 | $2,700 |
| NycBars.com | $2,188 | $5,400 |
| OfficeFurnishings.com | $2,450 | $8,800 |
| PhotoEssay.com | $2,500 | $9,500 |
| ReelFishing.com | $2,000 | $6,600 |
| Refractive.com | $3,300 | $10,000 |
| ResponseManagement.com | $3,000 | $1,800 |
| RoadCrew.com | $2,700 | $2,300 |
| SecondThoughts.com | $2,000 | $2,500 |
| Separatist.com | $2,612 | $7,200 |
| SofaSets.com | $2,300 | $7,300 |
| SolarGenerators.com | $2,200 | $3,500 |
| SpamFiltering.com | $2,600 | $23,000 |
| StudyJapanese.com | $2,000 | $21,000 |
| SummerClothing.com | $2,525 | $14,000 |
| SupportSystem.com | $3,000 | $12,000 |
| SurplusSupplies.com | $2,300 | $1,200 |
| TradeAlert.com | $2,000 | $6,600 |
| TvAdvertisements.com | $2,888 | $4,600 |
| UltrasoundImaging.com | $2,400 | $13,000 |
| VacationLodging.com | $2,300 | $6,800 |
| NicheProducts.com | $2,000 | $2,700 |
| NycBars.com | $2,188 | $5,400 |
| OfficeFurnishings.com | $2,450 | $8,800 |
| PhotoEssay.com | $2,500 | $9,500 |
| ReelFishing.com | $2,000 | $6,600 |
| Refractive.com | $3,300 | $10,000 |
| ResponseManagement.com | $3,000 | $1,800 |
| RoadCrew.com | $2,700 | $2,300 |
| SecondThoughts.com | $2,000 | $2,500 |
| Separatist.com | $2,612 | $7,200 |
| SofaSets.com | $2,300 | $7,300 |
| SolarGenerators.com | $2,200 | $3,500 |
| SpamFiltering.com | $2,600 | $23,000 |
| StudyJapanese.com | $2,000 | $21,000 |
| SummerClothing.com | $2,525 | $14,000 |
| SupportSystem.com | $3,000 | $12,000 |
| SurplusSupplies.com | $2,300 | $1,200 |
| TradeAlert.com | $2,000 | $6,600 |
| TvAdvertisements.com | $2,888 | $4,600 |
| UltrasoundImaging.com | $2,400 | $13,000 |
| VacationLodging.com | $2,300 | $6,800 |
EstiBot predictions of SEDO October .mobi Premium Auction Results
Before the SEDO October .mobi premium started, I published the EstiBot predictions for the premium SEDO .mobi auction results- here then are the results!
You can confirm the date of the predictions and view my original post here:
NamePros Post
Here are the EstiBot predictions compared to the final sale prices for the October .mobi premium auction. The EstiBot valuations were done with the Bulk Tool, which gives a slightly different valuation compared to the single domain tool on the main page.
The total sum that EstiBot predicted for the domains that were sold:
840,414
The actual sum of the sale prices in the SEDO auction:
864,250
Here is the breakdown. The Blue number is the EstiBot prediction, and the Red number is the actual closing auction sale price:
discounttravel.mobi $600 - $2,200
investment.mobi $3,400 - $12,000
loancalculations.mobi $20 - $70
beso.mobi $560 - $900
lastminutetravel.mobi $60 - $260
investing.mobi $5,600 - $2,111
scores.mobi $3,000 - $33,000
princess.mobi $5,600 - $950
backtaxes.mobi $180 - $60
airport.mobi $7,300 - $4,000
hoteldeals.mobi $810 - $2,250
shaking.mobi $650 - $170
lesbian.mobi $100,000 - $7,500
bookmarks.mobi $5,300 - $900
vacation.mobi $21,000 - $8,600
updater.mobi $250 - $100
smile.mobi $7,400 - $1,500
gps.mobi $7,500 - $9,500
discountflights.mobi $400 - $1,200
dvd-r.mobi $0 - $95
lesbians.mobi $130,000 - $9,500
storm.mobi $8,900 - $1,500
flight.mobi $8,600 - $14,000
3dm.mobi $70 - $350
love.mobi $44,000 - $12,750
gas.mobi $4,500 - $9,100
smiley.mobi $5,900 - $1,550
drivingdirections.mobi $2,300 - $410
bacio.mobi $220 - $450
date.mobi $9,700 - $40,000
loancalculation.mobi $30 - $60
bookmark.mobi $2,800 - $1,050
pretty.mobi $8,100 - $1,300
citymaps.mobi $1,800 - $4,200
stadtplan.mobi $1,800 - $858
scape.mobi $670 - $217
airports.mobi $4,500 - $3,650
flug.mobi $1,800 - $3,100
jogodevideo.mobi $0 - $70
resorts.mobi $4,000 - $7,550
taxi.mobi $6,000 - $75,111
golfclubs.mobi $5,100 - $3,100
new.mobi $4,000 - $4,350
apartmentz.mobi $0 - $80
beautiful.mobi $10,000 - $1,425
viajes.mobi $2,800 - $8,302
citiesonline.mobi $0 - $122
trip.mobi $7,200 - $5,100
direcciones.mobi $470 - $300
spa.mobi $3,300 - $4,266
ringertones.mobi $0 - $80
beauty.mobi $7,900 - $10,756
humor.mobi $13,000 - $12,500
internetads.mobi $0 - $960
holiday.mobi $9,800 - $14,500
rentalcar.mobi $1,800 - $4,900
gay.mobi $27,000 - $18,000
chansons.mobi $1,200 - $350
mapa.mobi $2,900 - $2,750
translate.mobi $7,300 - $8,100
lover.mobi $4,400 - $1,200
holidays.mobi $14,000 - $22,500
vacationrentals.mobi $630 - $1,320
dating.mobi $14,000 - $73,000
donaciones.mobi $80 - $70
personals.mobi $16,000 - $5,825
student.mobi $9,700 - $14,000
kiss.mobi $15,000 - $23,777
buy.mobi $3,900 - $32,500
place.mobi $6,000 - $1,200
byareacode.mobi $0 - $70
gold.mobi $14,000 - $4,151
girl.mobi $47,000 - $11,501
bwm.mobi $280 - $420
roadmap.mobi $640 - $1,550
office.mobi $6,200 - $8,851
golfcourses.mobi $380 - $3,750
map.mobi $7,300 - $11,870
installer.mobi $1,500 - $320
homes.mobi $9,700 - $53,700
adult.mobi $59,000 - $30,000
vacationpackages.mobi $1,100 - $2,250
urbanmaps.mobi $0 - $80
bride.mobi $5,900 - $2,250
taxicabs.mobi $350 - $4,100
fantasy.mobi $8,600 - $1,700
lasvegashotels.mobi $110 - $1,900
camp.mobi $6,500 - $1,600
smileyface.mobi $480 - $161
celibacy.mobi $410 - $9
flights.mobi $51,000 - $22,500
plane.mobi $5,300 - $1,500
limo.mobi $4,600 - $12,756
parking.mobi $2,900 - $15,500
motels.mobi $7,000 - $47,000
hotel.mobi $9,200 - $46,000
camera.mobi $12,000 - $5,450
My conclusion:
The overall predictive value of EstiBot for .mobi is very good. Inevitably, there are some individual appraisals that are quite a bit off, but not that many. The EstiBot valuations give a good relative indication of domain value in the .mobi tld.
From this result I conclude that the predictive value of EstiBot appraisals, even in the hard-to-appraise .mobi TLD, is so far beyond the capacity of any other appraisal system, that at this point I don't have to worry about the competition. I am constantly looking at ways to make the algorithm better, but even as it is now, it's certainly by far the most accurate on the Web.
Update 10-15-2007: I just used the Bulk Appraisal tool to check the Moniker Traffic Miami Live Auction domains, and here is the comparison of the EstiBot results to the real sale prices reported by Moniker. I noticed that EstiBot was undervaluing the premium .mobis, so I omitted .mobis from this list. dotmobi seems to have an irregular price structure; top premium names sell for big bucks, but the regular premium ones sell at close to what EstiBot gives them.
Here is the comparison chart. It confirms in my mind that the V2 algorithm produces unprecedented accuracy for an automatic appraisal tool.
| Domain | EstiBot | Auction Sale |
| computer.com | 4,400,000 | 2,200,000 |
| investment.com | 420,000 | 900,000 |
| sportinggoods.com | 210,000 | 450,000 |
| cowboys.com | 450,000 | 275,000 |
| table.com | 460,000 | 260,000 |
| crosswordpuzzles.com | 160,000 | 210,000 |
| criminallawyers.com | 22,000 | 195,000 |
| promotion.com | 260,000 | 170,000 |
| bathingsuit.com | 99,000 | 160,000 |
| newlyweds.com | 35,000 | 130,000 |
| manufacture.com | 120,000 | 90,000 |
| moneylenders.com | 4,500 | 75,000 |
| races.com | 120,000 | 75,000 |
| autofinancing.com | 27,000 | 70,000 |
| automobileparts.com | 28,000 | 70,000 |
| dock.com | 87,000 | 70,000 |
| rapvideos.com | 30,000 | 70,000 |
| tuxedorental.com | 18,000 | 65,000 |
| amusement.com | 52,000 | 60,000 |
| organicfarms.com | 6,100 | 57,500 |
| fertilitydoctors.com | 7,300 | 55,000 |
| mucho.com | 34,000 | 50,000 |
| scientists.com | 150,000 | 50,000 |
| crow.com | 190,000 | 48,300 |
| digitalcertificates.com | 11,000 | 30,000 |
| educationgrants.com | 40,000 | 30,000 |
| golfclubs.net | 9,000 | 30,000 |
| homestereo.com | 20,000 | 30,000 |
| schoolteacher.com | 6,300 | 28,000 |
| cateringservice.com | 17,000 | 27,000 |
| chocolatecandy.com | 30,000 | 26,500 |
| dogboarding.com | 20,000 | 25,000 |
| lottoresults.com | 15,000 | 25,000 |
| homebasedbusinesses.com | 710 | 23,000 |
| certifiedorganic.com | 3,400 | 21,000 |
| helicoptercharter.com | 9,900 | 21,000 |
| luxuryyacht.com | 4,300 | 20,000 |
| idols.com | 45,000 | 19,000 |
| malpracticeattorneys.com | 13,000 | 18,000 |
| malpracticeattorneys.com | 13,000 | 18,000 |
| aircraftrental.com | 18,000 | 17,500 |
| emmanuel.com | 92,000 | 17,500 |
| takepart.com | 19,000 | 17,500 |
| aircraftrental.com | 18,000 | 17,500 |
| emmanuel.com | 92,000 | 17,500 |
| takepart.com | 19,000 | 17,500 |
| cysticfibrosis.org | 5,700 | 17,000 |
| industrialengineering.com | 18,000 | 17,000 |
| sattests.com | 12,000 | 17,000 |
| cysticfibrosis.org | 5,700 | 17,000 |
| industrialengineering.com | 18,000 | 17,000 |
| sattests.com | 12,000 | 17,000 |
| allergymedications.com | 7,600 | 16,000 |
| truckloan.com | 2,500 | 16,000 |
| allergymedications.com | 7,600 | 16,000 |
| truckloan.com | 2,500 | 16,000 |
| cemeteryplots.com | 3,100 | 15,500 |
| cemeteryplots.com | 3,100 | 15,500 |
| cholesterol.net | 24,000 | 15,000 |
| cholesterol.net | 24,000 | 15,000 |
| emergencyloan.com | 11,000 | 13,000 |
| lotto.info | 5,900 | 12,500 |
| audit.net | 5,100 | 12,000 |
| forsale.org | 4,400 | 12,000 |
| spaghettisauce.com | 20,000 | 11,000 |
| conventions.org | 3,900 | 10,000 |
| corgis.com | 45,000 | 10,000 |
| ustrademarks.com | 6,100 | 10,000 |
| perch.com | 46,000 | 9,500 |
| designstudios.com | 3,200 | 8,600 |
| airlinetickets.org | 28,000 | 8,500 |
| software.info | 64,000 | 8,500 |
| cardstores.com | 8,000 | 8,000 |
| carraces.com | 12,000 | 8,000 |
| drugrehabilitationprogram.com | 310 | 8,000 |
| hospitals.us | 5,100 | 8,000 |
| primaryeducation.com | 20,000 | 8,000 |
| discountairfares.net | 1,900 | 7,500 |
| electromagnets.com | 19,000 | 7,500 |
| repossessedcars.com | 16,000 | 7,500 |
| cabletelevision.net | 1,100 | 7,000 |
| cigarbars.com | 2,600 | 6,000 |
| artdecofurniture.com | 180 | 5,500 |
| wifi.us | 5,700 | 5,500 |
| borrow.net | 3,000 | 5,000 |
| discountsoftware.net | 2,500 | 5,000 |
| federalgovernment.net | 2,200 | 5,000 |
| motorpool.com | 2,500 | 5,000 |
| bookclub.info | 950 | 4,500 |
| documenttranslation.com | 8,000 | 4,500 |
| renoapartments.com | 1,100 | 4,500 |
| telephotolens.com | 8,500 | 4,500 |
| deposit.net | 4,500 | 4,000 |
| downloadmovies.net | 3,400 | 4,000 |
| draftboard.com | 3,500 | 4,000 |
| exerciseclass.com | 3,000 | 4,000 |
| girlblog.com | 490 | 4,000 |
| remodelingservices.com | 2,500 | 4,000 |
| draftboard.com | 3,500 | 4,000 |
| exerciseclass.com | 3,000 | 4,000 |
| girlblog.com | 490 | 4,000 |
| remodelingservices.com | 2,500 | 4,000 |
| billyjean.com | 31,000 | 3,500 |
| discountcruises.org | 2,800 | 3,500 |
| billyjean.com | 31,000 | 3,500 |
| discountcruises.org | 2,800 | 3,500 |
| mortgagepoints.com | 10,000 | 2,700 |
| mortgagepoints.com | 10,000 | 2,700 |
| employmentreferences.com | 7,000 | 2,500 |
| employmentreferences.com | 7,000 | 2,500 |
| streetmaps.net | 3,000 | 2,000 |
| streetmaps.net | 3,000 | 2,000 |
| prepaidcellphonecards.com | 2,200 | 750 |
| tickersymbols.info | 120 | 750 |
| prepaidcellphonecards.com | 2,200 | 750 |
| tickersymbols.info | 120 | 750 |
I just ran the last 12 sales as reported today (July 1st, 2007) on NameBio.com, in the order in which they appeared:
inkbargains.com 1000 EstiBot: 1,900
poolpass.com 850 EstiBot: 720
intoworld.com 340 EstiBot: 5,600
worldfitnessnetwork.com 500 EstiBot: 50
wineforyou.com 370 EstiBot: 369
beautyconcept.net 688 EstiBot: 110
videomall.com 500 EstiBot: 250
coloradocreditunion.com 3350 EstiBot: 2,600
cameras.com.cn 4000 EstiBot: 6,500
great-britain.de 3364 EstiBot: 2,600
domainnameregister.org 2000 EstiBot: 951
xaj.com 10441 EstiBot: 6,200
A fairly good ballpark reliability in my opinion.
I also ran some sales reported by the DDN network, these are clearly the result of good marketing, finding end users. Many of these names would have been appraised at reg fee to low XX in the forums I suspect, and also by EstiBot before this update:
SecurityEnvelope.com $1,600.00 USD USD 1,200
InvestmentPolicies.com $1,300.00 estibot USD USD 1,200
StraightBankruptcy.com $800.00 USD USD 1,600
HillsConstruction.com $750.00 USD 760
TexasGrowers.com $500.00 USD 484
SpyCamWarehouse.com $450.00 USD 470
DressyOccasion.com $400.00 USD 370
BuffaloHistory.com $550.00 USD 1,500
Corporateseal.org $750.00 USD 3,800
DissectingMicroscope.com $750.00 USD 5,300
InvestmentsBook.com $1,150.00 USD 480
DiversifyInvestments.com $1,100.00 USD 620
NanniesCanada.com $1,100.00 USD 400
MariannaRealEstate.com $700.00 USD 2,900
InflationFighter.com $1,150.00 USD 290
CrystalStores.com $600.00 USD 200
ChicagoValet.com $600.00 USD 170
WillsProbate.com $550.00 USD 461
TruckDiagnostics.com $750.00 USD 440
ToolBaby.com $1,550.00 USD 306
ScoliosisExercises.com $1,650.00 USD 282
Roofpitch.com $2,700.00 estibot EstiBot USD 1,400
InvestmentArticles.com $2,550.00 USD 3,200
AlternativeDieselFuels.com $1,900.00 USD 1,000
Agespots.net $1,700.00 USD 150
PersonalInvestmentPortfolio.com $1,500.00 USD 200
GiftCertificatePrinting.com $1,150.00 USD 170
NorwalkAdvertising.com $1,150.00 USD 120
KitchenSinksOnline.com $1,100.00 USD 20
WholesaleCanvasBags.com $1,000.00 USD 170
GrandPrairieApartments.com $1,000.00 USD 4,700
CheapCanvasBags.com $900.00 Reg Fee
StCharlesMagazine.com $900.00 55
Wooden-Beds.com $850.00 USD 1,829
BathroomSinksOnline.com $800.00 Reg Fee
HoustonValetParking.com $650.00 Reg Fee
InternationalEmailAddresses.com $550.00 USD 20
Chess-Posters.com $550.00 Reg Fee
DallasValetParking.com $550.00 137
Rosaceatreatment.org $550.00 USD 300
Adhd-Treatment.com $550.00 USD 6,300
ArizonaBillboards.com $550.00 Reg Fee
OklahomaMedicalSupply.com $550.00 Reg Fee
VerticalHydroponics.com $500.00 117
BelizeMarina.com $500.00 USD 30
Irvineweather.com $450.00 USD 498
ChildrenCd.com $400.00 USD 50
Finance-Business.com $400.00 USD 18,259
Room for improvement? Yes, certainly. But definitely getting there, approaching a good ballpark reliability in my opinion.
I emphasize that some individual estimates may still be quite a bit off, and as the beta testing proceeds, I get reports of these errors and try to fix them.